Oscars Predictions: Best Picture — Venice and TIFF Will Welcome ‘Bardo’ and ‘The Fabelmans’ to Awards Season

Rank Film Distributor Producers 1 “The Fabelmans” Universal Pictures Tony Kushner, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Steven Spielberg A semi-autobiography based on Spielberg’s own childhood growing up in post-war Arizona, from age seven to eighteen. 2 “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” Netflix Alejandro González Iñárritu The film explores the political and social modernity of Mexico. 3 “TÁR” Focus Features Todd Field, Scott Lambert, Alexandra Milchan Set in the international world of classical music, the film centers on Lydia Tár. widely considered one of the greatest living composer/conductors and first-ever female chief conductor of a major German orchestra. 4 “The Son” Sony Pictures Classics Iain Canning, Joanna Laurie, Emile Sherman, Christophe Spadone, Florian Zeller Peter as his busy life with new partner Emma and their baby is thrown into disarray when his ex-wife Kate turns up with their teenage son, Nicholas. 5 “Women Talking” MGM/United Artists Releasing Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Frances McDormand, Brad Pitt A group of women in an isolated religious colony as they struggle to reconcile their faith with a string of sexual assaults committed by the colony’s men. 6 “Everything Everywhere All at Once” A24 Dan Kwan, Mike Larocca, Anthony Russo, Joe Russo, Daniel Scheinert, Jonathan Wang An aging Chinese immigrant is swept up in an insane adventure, where she alone can save the world by exploring other universes connecting with the lives she could have led. 7 “Triangle of Sadness” Neon Philippe Bober, Erik Hemmendorff A cruise for the super-rich sinks thus leaving survivors, including a fashion model celebrity couple, trapped on an island. 8 “The Banshees of Inisherin” Searchlight Pictures Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Martin McDonagh Two lifelong friends find themselves at an impasse when one abruptly ends their relationship, with alarming consequences for both of them. 9 “Elvis” Warner Bros. Baz Luhrmann, Gail Berman, Catherine Martin, Patrick McCormick, Schuyler Weiss Elvis is Baz Luhrmann’s biopic of Elvis Presley, from his childhood to becoming a rock and movie star in the 1950s while maintaining a complex relationship with his manager, Colonel Tom Parker. 10 “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Marvel Studios Kevin Feige The nation of Wakanda is pitted against intervening world powers as they mourn the loss of their king T’Challa. Next in Line 11 “White Noise” Netflix Noah Baumbach, Uri Singer 12 “Babylon” Paramount Pictures Olivia Hamilton, Marc Platt, Matt Plouffe 13 “Top Gun: Maverick” Paramount Pictures Jerry Bruckheimer, Tom Cruise, Christopher McQuarrie, David Ellison 14 “Till” Orion/United Artists Releasing Keith Beauchamp, Barbara Broccoli, Thomas K. Levine, Michael JP Reilly, Frederick Zollo, Whoopi Goldberg 15 “Empire of Light” Searchlight Pictures Pippa Harris, Sam Mendes 16 “She Said” Universal Pictures Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner 17 “Living” Sony Pictures Classics Stephen Woolley, Elizabeth Karlsen 18 “Avatar: The Way of Water” 20th Century Studios James Cameron, Jon Landau 19 “The Woman King” TriStar Pictures Maria Bello, Viola Davis, Cathy Schulman, Julius Tennon 20 “Don’t Worry Darling” Warner Bros Olivia Wilde, Katie Silberman, Miri Yoon, Roy Lee Other Top-Tier Contenders 21 “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” Netflix Rian Johnson, Ram Bergman 22 “Amsterdam” 20th Century Studios Matthew Budman, David O. Russell, Arnon Milchan, Anthony Katagas 23 “The Whale” A24 Jeremy Dawson, Darren Aronofsky, Ari Handel 24 “The Inspection” A24 Chester Algernal Gordon, Effie Brown 25 “The Pale Blue Eye” Netflix Scott Cooper, Christian Bale, John Lesher, Tyler Thompson 26 “Decision to Leave” Mubi Park Chan-wook 27 “The Wonder” Netflix Ed Guiney, Juliette Howell, Andrew Lowe, Tessa Ross 28 “Argentina, 1985” Amazon Studios Victoria Alonso, Santiago Carabante, Chino Darín, Ricardo Darín, Axel Kuschevatzky, Agustina Llambi-Campbell, Santiago Mitre, Federico Posternak 29 “Spoiler Alert: The Hero Dies” Focus Features Michael Showalter, Jordana Mollick, Todd Spiewak, Jim Parsons 30 “A Man Called Otto” Sony Pictures Tom Hanks, Gary Goetzman, Rita Wilson, Fredrik Wikström Nicastro Also in Contention 31 “The Greatest Beer Run Ever” Apple Original Films David Ellison, Dana Goldberg, Don Granger, Andrew Muscato, Jake Myers, Peter Farrelly 32 “Three Thousand Years of Longing” MGM/United Artists Releasing George Miller, Doug Mitchell 33 “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinochhio” Netflix Guillermo del Toro, Lisa Henson, Alexander Bulkley, Corey Campodonico, Gary Ungar 34 “Corsage” IFC Films Alexander Glehr, Johanna Scherz 35 “Holy Spider” Utopia Sol Bondy, Jacob Jarek, Ali Abbasi 36 “Nanny” Amazon Studios Nikkia Moulterie, Daniela Taplin Lundberg 37 “Armageddon Time” Focus Features James Gray, Anthony Katagas, Rodrigo Teixeira, Alan Terpins 38 “The Menu” Searchlight Pictures Adam McKay, Betsy Koch 39 “Happening” IFC Films Edouard Weil, Alice Girard 40 “Golda” Bleecker Street Jane Hooks, Michael Kuhn Other Possibilities 41 “A Jazzman’s Blues” Netflix Tyler Perry 42 “Nope” Universal Pictures Robert Graf, Jordan Peele, Kate Kelly, Ian Cooper, Sara Scott, Tony Ducret 43 “Shirley” Netflix Elizabeth Haggard, Regina King, Reina King, John Ridley 44 “I Wanna Dance with Somebody” Sony Pictures Clive Davis, Pat Houston, Anthony McCarten, Larry Mestel, Denis O’Sullivan, Jeff Kalligheri 45 “One Fine Morning” Sony Pictures Classics David Thion, Philippe Martin, Charlotte Dauphin 46 “Lady Chatterley’s Lover” Netflix Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Elizabeth Gabler, Laurence Mark 47 “Causeway” A24/Apple Original Films Jennifer Lawrence, Justine Polsky 48 “Raymond & Ray” Apple Original Films Alfonso Cuarón, Bonnie Curtis, Julie Lynn 49 “Bones & All” MGM/United Artists Releasing Luca Guadagnino, David Lajganich, Francesco Melzi d’Eril, Lorenzo Mieli, Marco Morabito, Gabriele Moratti, Theresa Park, Peter Spears 50 “Chevalier” Searchlight Pictures Stefani Robinson, Dianne McGunigle, Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical) “A Compassionate Spy” No U.S. Distribution To be added “A Couple” No U.S. Distribution To be added “A Jazzman’s Blues” Netflix Tyler Perry “A Man Called Otto” Sony Pictures Tom Hanks, Gary Goetzman, Rita Wilson, Fredrik Wikström Nicastro “A Man of Reason” No U.S. Distribution To be added “About My Father” Lionsgate Chelsea Kujawa, Andrew Miano, James Myers, Chris Weitz, Paul Weitz “After Yang” A24 Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan, Paul Mezey, Theresa Park “Aftersun” A24 Mark Ceryak, Amy Jackson, Barry Jenkins, Adele Romanski “Alice, Darling” Lionsgate Katie Bird Nolan, Christina Piovesan, Noah Segal, Lindsay Tapscott, Sam Tipper-Hale “All Quiet on the Western Front” Netflix Daniel Marc Dreifuss, Malte Grunert “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” No U.S. Distribution To be added “All the Old Knives” Amazon Studios Gail Egan, Matt Jackson, Paula Mae Schwartz, Steve Schwartz, Nick Wechsler “Allelujah” No U.S. Distribution Damian Jones, Kevin Loader “Am I OK? HBO Max Stephanie Allynne, Ro Donnelly, Jessica Elbaum, Erik Feig, Will Ferrell, Dakota Johnson, Lucy Kitada, Tig Notaro “Ambulance” Universal Pictures Michael Bay, Ian Bryce, Laeta Kalogridis, James Vanderbilt “Amsterdam” 20th Century Studios Matthew Budman, David O. Russell, Arnon Milchan, Anthony Katagas “Apollo 10 1⁄2: A Space Age Childhood” Netflix Richard Linklater, Mike Blizzard, Tommy Pallotta, Femke Wolting, Bruno Felix “Argentina, 1985” Amazon Studios To be added “Armageddon Time” Focus Features James Gray, Anthony Katagas, Rodrigo Teixeira, Alan Terpins “As They Made Us” Quiver Mayim Bialik, Anne Clements, Jordan Yale Levine, Jordan Beckerman, Ash Christian, Mark Maxey, Michael Day “Athena” Netflix Mourad Belkeddar, Romain Gavras, Ladj Ly “Avatar: The Way of Water” 20th Century Studios James Cameron, Jon Landau “Babylon” Paramount Pictures Olivia Hamilton, Marc Platt, Matt Plouffe “Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths)” Netflix Alejandro González Iñárritu “Beast” Universal Pictures Baltasar Kormákur, James Lopez, Will Packer “Beyond the Wall” No U.S. Distribution To be added “Bitterbrush” Magnolia Pictures Su Kim, Emelie Mahdavian “Black Adam” Warner Bros Beau Flynn, Dany Garcia, Hiram Garcia “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” Marvel Studios Kevin Feige “Blonde” Netflix Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Tracey Landon, Brad Pitt, Scott Robertson “Blueback” No U.S. Distribution Robert Connolly, James Grandison, Liz Kearney “Bobi Wine Ghetto President” No U.S. Distribution To be added “Bodies Bodies Bodies” A24 Ali Herting, David Hinojosa “Bones & All” MGM/United Artists Releasing Luca Guadagnino, David Lajganich, Francesco Melzi d’Eril, Lorenzo Mieli, Marco Morabito, Gabriele Moratti, Theresa Park, Peter Spears “Both Sides of the Blade” IFC Films Olivoer Delbosc “Brian and Charles” Focus Features Rupert Majendie “Broker” Neon Eugene Lee “Bros” Universal Pictures Judd Apatow, Joshua Church, Nicholas Stoller “Brother” No U.S. Distribution Damon D’Oliveira, Sonya Di Rienzo, Aeschylus Poulos, Clement Virgo “Bullet Train” Sony Pictures Antoine Fuqua, David Leitch, Kelly McCormick “Butcher’s Crossing” Saban Films Amanda Bowers, Will Clarke, Molly Conners, Andy Mayson, Gabe Polsky “Call Jane” Roadside Attractions Robbie Brenner, Kevin McKeon, David Wulf “Call of God” No U.S. Distribution To be added “Carmen” Sony Pictures Classics Rosemary Blight, Dimitri Rassam, Mimi Valdes “Catherine, Called Birdy” Amazon Studios Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Jo Wallet “Causeway” A24/Apple Original Films Jennifer Lawrence, Justine Polsky “Cha Cha Real Smooth” Apple Original Films Ro Donnelly, Erik Feig, Dakota Johnson, Cooper Raiff, Jessica Switch “Chevalier” Searchlight Pictures Stefani Robinson, Dianne McGunigle, Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe “Chiara” No U.S. Distribution To be added “Close” A24 Michiel Dhont, Dirk Impens “Corsage” IFC Films Alexander Glehr, Johanna Scherz “Crimes of the Future” Neon Robert Lantos, Panos Papahadzis, Steve Solomos “DC League of Super Pets” Warner Bros Patricia Hicks, Dwayne Johnson, Dany Garcia, Hiram Garcia, Jared Stern “Dead For a Dollar” No U.S. Distribution To be added “Dear David” Lionsgate Naysun Alae-Carew, Jason Moring, Michael Philip, Richard Alan Reid “Death on the Nile” 20th Century Studios Kenneth Branagh, Judy Hofflund, Ridley Scott, Kevin J. Walsh “Decision to Leave” Mubi Park Chan-wook “Descendant” Netflix Margaret Brown, Essie Chambers, Kyle Martin “Devotion” Sony Pictures Thad Luckinbill, Trent Luckinbill, Molly Smith, Rachel Smith “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” Marvel Studios Kevin Feige “Don’t Worry Darling” Warner Bros Olivia Wilde, Katie Silberman, Miri Yoon, Roy Lee “Dreamin’ Wild” No U.S. Distribution Bill Pohlad, Jim Burke, Kim Roth, Viviana Vezzani, Karl Spoerri “Drifting Home” Netflix Koji Yamamoto “Driving” No U.S. Distribution To be added “Easter Sunday” Universal Pictures Jonathan Eirich, Dan Lin “El Suplente” No U.S. Distribution To be added “Elvis” Warner Bros. Baz Luhrmann, Gail Berman, Catherine Martin, Patrick McCormick, Schuyler Weiss “Emergency” Amazon Studios Marty Bowen, John Fischer, Isaac Klausner “Emily the Criminal” Roadside Attractions Tyler Davidson, Aubrey Plaza, Drew Sykes “Empire of Light” Searchlight Pictures Pippa Harris, Sam Mendes “EO” Janus Films and Sideshow Ewa Piasokowska, Jerzy Skolimowski “Everything Everywhere All at Once” A24 Dan Kwan, Mike Larocca, Anthony Russo, Joe Russo, Daniel Scheinert, Jonathan Wang “Final Cut” No U.S. Distribution Brahim Chioua, Alain de La Mata, Noémie Devide, Michel Hazanavicius, Vincent Maraval, John Penotti “First Love” Vertical Entertainment Nadine de Barros, A.J. Edwards, Lucas Jarach, Henry Bittredge “Freedom on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom” No U.S. Distribution To be added “Gabby Giffords Won’t Back Down” Briarcliff Entertainment Julie Cohen, Betsy West, Lisa Espramer, Sam Jinishian “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery” Netflix Rian Johnson, Ram Bergman “Gli Ultimi Giorni Dell’Umanità” No U.S. Distribution To be added “God’s Country” IFC Films Miranda Bailey, Halee Bernard, Julian Higgins, Amanda Marshall “Golda” Bleecker Street Jane Hooks, Michael Kuhn “Good Night Oppy” Amazon Studios Matt Carroll, Justin Falvey, Darryl Frank, Matt Goldberg “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinochhio” Netflix Guillermo del Toro, Lisa Henson, Alexander Bulkley, Corey Campodonico, Gary Ungar “Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song” Sony Pictures Classics Daniel Geller, Dayna Goldfine “Halloween Ends” Universal Pictures Malek Akkad, Bill Block, Jason Blum “Happening” IFC Films Edouard Weil, Alice Girard “Holy Spider” Utopia Sol Bondy, Jacob Jarek, Ali Abbasi “Hunt” No U.S. Distribution Lee Jung-jae “Hustle” Netflix Maverick Carter, Allen Covert, LeBron James, Jeff Kirschenbaum “I Love My Dad” Magnolia Pictures Bill Stertz, Patton Oswalt, Sean O’Grady, Dane Eckerle, Phil Keefe, Daniel Brandt, Sam Slater “I Wanna Dance with Somebody” Sony Pictures Clive Davis, Pat Houston, Anthony McCarten, Larry Mestel, Denis O’Sullivan, Jeff Kalligheri “In Viaggio” No U.S. Distribution To be added “Infinity Pool” Neon Andrew Cividino, Rob Cotterill, Karen Harnish, Christina Piovesan, Noah Segal “Joyland” No U.S. Distribution To be added “Jurassic World: Dominion” Universal Pictures Patrick Crowley, Frank Marshall “Kacchey Limbu” No U.S. Distribution Mandar Devasthali “Lady Chatterley’s Lover” Netflix Graham Broadbent, Peter Czernin, Elizabeth Gabler, Laurence Mark “Lightyear” Pixar Galyn Susman “Living” Sony Pictures Classics Stephen Woolley, Elizabeth Karlsen “Love Life” No U.S. Distribution To be added “Luck” Apple Original Films John Lasseter, David Ellison, Dana Goldberg and David Eisenmann “Lyle, Lyle Crocodile” Sony Pictures Josh Gordon, Hutch Parker, Will Speck “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” A24 Dean Fleischer-Camp, Andrew Goldman, Elisabeth Holm, Caroline Kaplan, Terry Leonard, Paul Mezey “Master Gardener” No U.S. Distribution Amanda Crittenden, David Gonzales, Scott LaStatiti “Master” Amazon Studios Joshua Astrachan, Brad Becker-Parton, Andrea Roa “Mavka: The Forest Song” Feelgood Entertainment Anna Eliseyeva, Iryna Kostyuk, Egor Olesov “Men” A24 Andrew Macdonald, Alton Reich “Minions: The Rise of Gru” Universal Pictures/Illumination Chris Meledandri, Janet Healy, Chris Renaud “Monica” No U.S. Distribution To be added “Montana Story” Bleecker Street Scott McGehee, David Siegel, Jennifer Roth “Moonage Daydream” HBO Documentary Films Brett Morgen “Moving On” No U.S. Distribution Stephanie Meurer, Andrew Miano, Chris Parker, Dylan Sellers, Paul Weitz “Mr. Malcolm’s List” Bleecker Street Laura Rister, Laura Lewis, Katie Holly, Emma Holly Jones “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” Focus Features Anthony Fabian, Xavier Marchand, Guillaume Benski “Music for Black Pigeons” No U.S. Distribution To be added “My Father’s Dragon” Netflix Bonnie Curtis, Julie Lynn, Paul Young “My Love Affair with Marriage” No U.S. distribution Roberts Vinovskis, Sturgis Warner, Signe Baumane, Raoul Nadalet “My Policeman” Amazon Studios Greg Berlanti, Sarah Schechter, Robbie Rogers, Cora Palfrey, Philip Herd “Nanny” Amazon Studios Nikkia Moulterie, Daniela Taplin Lundberg “Nit